Monitors

monitors: 8
with a threshold: 3
tripped: 0
awaiting an event: 5

Tripped rows first, then in the order the watchlist pre-commits them — never by nearness to trigger. Percentage points of inflation, percentage points of credit growth and shillings on the exchange rate are not one scale, and a single ordering across them would be a comparison nobody computed.

KES/USD spot
129.3
as of May–Jun 2026 · [ke-5]
On track
125flips 140145
Flips at Break above 140 · 10.7 shillings of headroom — engine arithmetic on the cited reading and the pre-committed threshold, not a figure any source states. Then: the downside FX leg goes live.
Private-sector credit growth, year on year
+9.0–9.3% y/y
as of May–Jun 2026 · [ke-5]
On track
-5flips 015
Flips at Back below 0% y/y · 9 points of headroom, measured from the stated range's near end — engine arithmetic on the cited reading and the pre-committed threshold, not a figure any source states. Then: the credit killer re-arms.
Headline CPI, year on year
+6.7% y/y
as of May 2026 · [ke-6]
On track
0flips 7.510
Flips at Above +7.5% y/y · 0.8 points of headroom — engine arithmetic on the cited reading and the pre-committed threshold, not a figure any source states. Then: a rate hike is forced and the easing tailwind ends.
Central Bank Rate
8.75%
as of Apr & Jun 2026 · [ke-5]
Awaiting an event
No bar: the trigger is an announcement, an unlanded print or a sustained direction, so there is no level to draw. A hike turns the read down; a cut turns it up. The direction of the next move is the signal, and neither direction is a level to compare against.
Office oversupply — last landed print
3.4M sq ft
as of FY2025 · [ke-4]
Awaiting an event
No bar: the trigger is an announcement, an unlanded print or a sustained direction, so there is no level to draw. The 2026 print itself is the trigger. The projected 5.9M sq ft figure is disputed and this engine publishes neither side as the expected value.
Nairobi building approvals, year on year
−24.5% y/y
as of Jan–Nov 2025 · [ke-6]
Awaiting an event
No bar: the trigger is an announcement, an unlanded print or a sustained direction, so there is no level to draw. A sustained sharp fall means a deeper freeze; a turn positive means confidence returning. No single reading settles it.
Diaspora remittances, monthly
$394m a month
as of May 2026 · [ke-5]
Awaiting an event
No bar: the trigger is an announcement, an unlanded print or a sustained direction, so there is no level to draw. A sustained decline weakens cash-buyer demand. A single month settles nothing.
IMF program status
none active
as of Apr 2026 · [ke-7]
Awaiting an event
No bar: the trigger is an announcement, an unlanded print or a sustained direction, so there is no level to draw. Signed gives an upside anchor and an FX buffer; a lapse fattens the tail. An announcement in either direction.

Behind the FX, credit and approvals rows sits the election calendar. It is recorded as context rather than as a ninth row, because it has no reading and no threshold — it is the thing that moves the others.