Before the anchor — Selection
Countries are chosen only on development similarity. Property performance is deliberately not consulted.
"Which countries looked like Kenya does now?"
Illustrative
Figures on this screen are labeled sample data used to demonstrate the workspace. Live connectors are not yet configured.Screening dimensions
Use Kenya's baseline to screen and rank countries that sat at a comparable development position at some point in their past. Select four to six countries and assign one common anchor date. This stage is selection only; it does not analyze property outcomes.
Income & demographics
GDP per capita, growth, age structure.
Urbanization stage
Share urban and rate of urban migration.
Infrastructure level
Transport, power and logistics maturity.
Credit access
Mortgage penetration and financial depth.
Economic structure
Sector mix and export base.
Policy & investment climate
Stability, openness and rule of law.
Fixed country × time cohort
Five analogues, each anchored at its own comparable anchor date. No country may be added or removed once observation begins.
| Country | Anchor date | Observation window | GDP per capita at anchor | Urban share | Mortgage depth | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VietnamManufacturing-led growth with a fast urbanizing corridor structure. | 2016 | 2016–2022 | USD 2,200 | 34% | Thin, expanding | 86/100 |
| PhilippinesServices and remittance-driven household formation. | 2015 | 2015–2021 | USD 2,900 | 46% | Shallow | 79/100 |
| NigeriaLarge informal sector and constrained mortgage market. | 2017 | 2017–2023 | USD 2,100 | 49% | Very shallow | 74/100 |
| MoroccoState-led infrastructure and social-housing programs. | 2015 | 2015–2021 | USD 3,000 | 61% | Moderate | 71/100 |
| IndiaCorridor infrastructure plus rapid logistics build-out. | 2016 | 2016–2022 | USD 1,750 | 33% | Thin, deepening | 68/100 |
Cohort locked. Because selection happened before any outcome was seen, an analogue whose market later disappointed cannot be quietly dropped.
The anchor firewall
After the anchor — Observation
With the cohort locked, the 3–7 year property response of each country is measured — winners and losers alike.
"What did property do next, and did it repeat?"
Stage 3 — post-anchor response by segment
For each selected country, track what happened to real estate in the three-to-seven years after the anchor date, measured segment by segment before asking why. This is an observation step: no country reselection.
| Segment | Price & rent growth | Absorption | New supply | Yields | Volatility | Analogues showing it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburban land & residential | Strong, early | Kept pace | Fragmented, gradual | Compressed | Moderate | 5 of 5 |
| Logistics & warehouses | Strong | Ahead of supply | Accelerating | Compressed | Low | 4 of 5 |
| Affordable housing / apartments | Moderate | Uneven by price band | Program-dependent | Stable | Moderate | 4 of 5 |
| Industrial property | Moderate | Policy-linked | Zone-led | Stable | Moderate | 3 of 5 |
| Offices & retail | Flat to negative | Lagged supply | Overbuilt in prime nodes | Widened | Elevated | 4 of 5 |
| Premium / luxury & hotels | Flat | Cyclical | Overbuilt | Widened | High | 3 of 5 |
Each segment is measured on its own, because a single headline number hides very different dynamics across asset types.