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Stage 1 · Foundation

Build Kenya's baseline macro scenario

Collect forward-looking views on Kenya's economy, demographics and social development over a five-to-ten-year horizon. Do not average the forecasts — interrogate each source's assumptions, methods and historical accuracy, then select the single most persuasive, internally consistent base case.

Stage 2 — fix the cohortMore
Illustrative
Figures on this screen are labeled sample data used to demonstrate the workspace. Live connectors are not yet configured.

Inputs to gather

Horizon: five to ten years. Each input is sourced and dated before it enters the base case.

  • Macroeconomic

    GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and currency path.

  • Demographic

    Population growth, age structure, household formation and the pace of urbanization.

  • Structural

    Infrastructure pipeline (roads, rail, ports, power), credit depth and mortgage penetration, policy direction.

Current macro readings

Starting conditions the baseline must explain.

Real GDP growth

Data confidence: Moderate

5.1%

+0.3 pp vs prior year

Annual change in real gross domestic product at constant prices.

Source: Illustrative — KNBS connector pending · FY 2025 (sample)View methodology

Headline inflation

Data confidence: Moderate

4.6%

-0.4 pp m/m

Year-on-year change in the Consumer Price Index.

Source: Illustrative — KNBS CPI connector pending · Jun 2026 (sample)View methodology

Central Bank Rate

Data confidence: Moderate

9.75%

-25 bps

Policy rate set by the Monetary Policy Committee.

Source: Illustrative — CBK connector pending · Jun 2026 (sample)View methodology

KES / USD

Data confidence: Moderate

132.4

+1.2% q/q

Mean indicative interbank exchange rate.

Source: Illustrative — CBK connector pending · Jun 2026 (sample)View methodology

Construction cost index

Data confidence: Limited

118.6

+3.9% y/y

Composite index of key construction input prices, 2020 = 100.

Source: Illustrative — KNBS construction inputs · Q1 2026 (sample)View methodology

Residential price index

Data confidence: Limited

104.2

+1.8% y/y

Index tracking change in average residential property prices, built from listings plus survey evidence.

Source: Illustrative — KNBS RPPI methodology · Q1 2026 (sample)View methodology

Core sources compared — not averaged

Each source is interrogated on assumptions, method and historical accuracy before one base case is chosen.

SourceWhat it contributesGDP pathStanceTrack record
World BankCountry economic memoranda, growth and poverty outlooks5.2%Structural reform-dependentStrong on Kenya fiscal analysis
IMF (WEO & Article IV)Program reviews, medium-term macro path5.0%Consolidation-ledTransparent method, conservative
UN (Population & Urbanization Prospects)Population, household formation, urban sharen/aUrban share to 36% by 2035Stable long-horizon series
African Development BankRegional and infrastructure outlooks5.4%Infrastructure-pipeline optimisticRegional depth, thinner on Kenya-specific risk
Oxford Economics & research centersIndependent macro models and scenario analysis4.7%Rate- and FX-cautiousBest recent accuracy on inflation path

Selected base case

IMF Article IV path, adjusted for the AfDB infrastructure pipeline

Horizon 2026–2035

Most transparent method and the best recent track record on Kenya's inflation and fiscal path; the AfDB pipeline is layered in only where financing is committed.

Carried risk: Growth spread across credible sources is 4.7%–5.4%. The disagreement is carried forward as a Stage 5 risk rather than averaged away.

Indexed context series

Illustrative price, rent and construction-cost paths that the baseline must remain consistent with.

Output: A defensible Kenya baseline. This becomes the yardstick every later stage is measured against.