Stage 4 — candidate mechanisms and the recurrence test
Turn the observed patterns into explanations. Retain a relationship only when it is supported across multiple analogues, not when it appears as a single-market correlation. Surviving mechanisms are the only things allowed into the forecast.
Infrastructure rollout
Typical effect: Suburban land appreciation
New transport corridors repriced peri-urban land ahead of completion in four analogues.
Evidence weight: 4 of 5 · Vietnam, India, Morocco, Philippines
Validated
E-commerce and trade growth
Typical effect: Warehouse demand
Logistics absorption outpaced delivery within three years of the anchor date.
Evidence weight: 3 of 5 · Vietnam, India, Philippines
Validated
Industrialization policy
Typical effect: Demand for industrial parks
Zone-based incentives translated into occupied floorspace where power supply held.
Evidence weight: 2 of 5 · Vietnam, Morocco
Validated
Middle-class growth
Typical effect: Affordable housing demand
Demand appeared consistently; conversion depended on mortgage availability.
Evidence weight: 3 of 5 · Philippines, Morocco, India
Validated
Overbuilding in prime nodes
Typical effect: Premium-segment stagnation
Prime office and luxury pipelines outran absorption in three analogues.
Evidence weight: 3 of 5 · Nigeria, Philippines, Vietnam
Validated
Diaspora remittance surges
Typical effect: Broad price growth
Observed in one analogue only; treated as local context, not a transferable mechanism.
Evidence weight: 1 of 5 · Philippines
Rejected — single market
Stage 5 — segment-by-segment Kenya outlook
Map the surviving mechanisms onto Kenya's baseline and state, for every segment, a probability of growth, a plausible value range, a confidence level and the named risks that could change the scenario.
| Segment | Validated driver | Probability | Range | Confidence | Key risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburban land & residential | Infrastructure rollout | High | + strong | Data confidence: High | Delivery delays |
| Logistics & warehouses | E-commerce / trade | High | + strong | Data confidence: Moderate | Demand shock |
| Affordable housing / apartments | Middle-class growth | Medium | + moderate | Data confidence: Moderate | Mortgage access |
| Industrial property | Industrialization | Medium | + moderate | Data confidence: Moderate | Policy execution |
| Offices & retail | Overbuilding risk | Low–Med | Flat / mixed | Data confidence: Moderate | Oversupply |
| Premium / luxury & hotels | Overbuilding + demand | Low | Flat | Data confidence: Limited | Cyclical demand |
Scenario range carried into the outlook
The spread between credible baseline views is carried forward as a range, not averaged away.
Validation loop
The forecast is a living view. Scenarios, analogues and hypotheses are updated as new macroeconomic and market data become available, and the outlook is re-anchored over time — quarterly for market data, annually for the baseline and the analogue screen.