Country, comparable-market, and property intelligence for African real estate
hello@rekenya.appInvestment report · Generated September 11, 2026
Income level helps show which property segments can exist. Returns depend on supply, entry yield, entry date, and currency.
01
What does the evidence say now?
Only at the right price
Income and segment evidence are promising, but currency risk can erase local gains.
GDP per capita
$2,363
US$ per person · 2025 · World Bank NY.GDP.PCAP.CD · USD
GDP per capita forecast
$3,328
US$ per person · 2031 · International Monetary Fund NGDPDPC · USD · estimated
Best segment
Warehouses and logistics
Section 5 · Internal dataset
Gross rental yield
7.9–9.4%
% range · 2011–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Property return dataset · not applicable · estimated
This report uses 82 data points from 20 sources. 73 are estimates or modelled values.
02
What kind of economy is this, and where is it going?
GDP
$135.9B
US$ · 2025 · World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.CD · USD
GDP per capita
$2,363
US$ per person · 2025 · World Bank NY.GDP.PCAP.CD · USD
GDP per capita, PPP
$7,016
international $ · 2025 · World Bank NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD · not applicable
Real GDP growth, five-year average
+5.5%
% per year · 2021–2025 · World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG · real
Real GDP growth forecast
Not available
% per year · 2031 · International Monetary Fund NGDP_RPCH · real · estimated
GDP per capita forecast
$3,328
US$ per person · 2031 · International Monetary Fund NGDPDPC · USD · estimated
Population
57,532,493
people · 2025 · World Bank SP.POP.TOTL · not applicable
Urban population
32.2%
% of population · 2025 · World Bank SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS · not applicable
Urban population growth
+2.9%
% per year · 2025 · World Bank SP.URB.GROW · not applicable
Inflation
+4.1%
% per year · 2025 · World Bank FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG · not applicable
Exchange rate
129.30
KES/US$ · 2025 · World Bank PA.NUS.FCRF · not applicable
Currency depreciation, ten-year
+47.1%
% · Latest ten years · World Bank Derived from PA.NUS.FCRF · USD · modelled
Mortgage lending rate
14.2%
% per year · Latest available · National agencies and broker research Central bank and lender review · not applicable · estimated
Mortgage debt to GDP
2.2%
% of GDP · Latest available · National agencies and broker research Central bank and IMF FSI review · not applicable · estimated
Construction and real estate share
7.1%
% of GDP · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National accounts review · not applicable · estimated
Income per person, current US dollars. World Bank to 2025, IMF forecast after that.
03
If demand rises, does it become higher prices or more buildings?
Building permits issued
Not available
count per year · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Housing completions
Not available
count per year · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Units under construction
Not available
units · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Completions per 1,000 people
Not available
ratio · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Estimated housing deficit
2,000,000
units · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Vacancy rate, Nairobi
12.3
% · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Construction cost change
4.7
% over five years · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Land price change
5.2
% over five years · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Time to obtain a building permit
159
days · Latest available · National agencies and broker research National statistics and broker review · not applicable · estimated
Supply response rating
4 / 5
1–5 · Current conditions · Intelligence Real Estate Supply response model · not applicable · modelled
Completions per 1,000 people, permit time, vacancy, and available land evidence. Missing inputs are not treated as zero.
04
Which countries were here before, and what happened next?
Reached this income level in 2011 · National or broker series
City apartment prices rose 52% over the next 10 years.
Nominal
+18.0%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Real
+13.9%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
US dollar
+0.2%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Early entry
+4.3%
real per year · modelled
Income-match year
+3.2%
real per year · modelled
Late entry
+1.6%
real per year · modelled
Reached this income level in 2004 · National or broker series
City apartment prices rose 31% over the next 10 years.
Nominal
+24.0%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Real
+19.9%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
US dollar
+36.7%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Early entry
+4.7%
real per year · modelled
Income-match year
+3.6%
real per year · modelled
Late entry
+2.0%
real per year · modelled
Reached this income level in 2006 · National or broker series
City apartment prices rose 19% over the next 10 years.
Nominal
+30.0%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Real
+25.9%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
US dollar
+14.4%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Early entry
+5.0%
real per year · modelled
Income-match year
+3.9%
real per year · modelled
Late entry
+2.3%
real per year · modelled
Reached this income level in 2010 · National or broker series
In US dollars, prices fell 26% over the following 5 years.
Nominal
-12.0%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Real
-16.1%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
US dollar
-196.4%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Early entry
-2.7%
real per year · modelled
Income-match year
-3.8%
real per year · modelled
Late entry
-5.4%
real per year · modelled
Reached this income level in 2014 · National or broker series
City apartment prices rose 71% over the next 10 years.
Nominal
+42.0%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Real
+37.9%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
US dollar
+23.6%
Ten years after income match · Intelligence Real Estate
Early entry
+5.7%
real per year · modelled
Income-match year
+4.6%
real per year · modelled
Late entry
+3.0%
real per year · modelled
These countries reached this income level at different times, under different supply and credit conditions. Similar income does not mean similar outcome — the set includes a poor outcome in Egypt.
05
Which property types can exist at this income level?
Established · Sells in months
Main risk: Rents follow local wages. Easy to sell, easy to oversupply.
Typical income threshold
$1,800
US$ per person · Comparable sample, 2010–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Segment viability dataset · USD · modelled
Gross rental yield
5.4–7.2%
% range · 2011–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Property return dataset · not applicable · estimated
Nominal
+13.5%
Real
-6.8%
US dollar
-30.4%
Evidence: moderate
Not yet · Hard to sell
Main risk: Needs a tenant with a long lease. Hard to sell quickly.
Typical income threshold
$2,500
US$ per person · Comparable sample, 2010–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Segment viability dataset · USD · modelled
Gross rental yield
7.9–9.4%
% range · 2011–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Property return dataset · not applicable · estimated
Nominal
+16.0%
Real
-4.3%
US dollar
-27.9%
Evidence: thin · Based on limited data
Emerging · Sells in months
Main risk: Income stops between school terms. Depends on one campus.
Typical income threshold
$2,200
US$ per person · Comparable sample, 2010–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Segment viability dataset · USD · modelled
Gross rental yield
6.9–8.0%
% range · 2011–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Property return dataset · not applicable · estimated
Nominal
+8.5%
Real
-11.8%
US dollar
-35.4%
Evidence: thin · Based on limited data
Established · Sells in months
Main risk: Thin margins. Depends on government rules staying stable.
Typical income threshold
$1,200
US$ per person · Comparable sample, 2010–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Segment viability dataset · USD · modelled
Gross rental yield
6.4–8.6%
% range · 2011–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Property return dataset · not applicable · estimated
Nominal
+14.5%
Real
-5.8%
US dollar
-29.4%
Evidence: thin · Based on limited data
Emerging · Sells in months
Main risk: Small tenants fail first in a downturn.
Typical income threshold
$2,000
US$ per person · Comparable sample, 2010–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Segment viability dataset · USD · modelled
Gross rental yield
6.1–7.8%
% range · 2011–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Property return dataset · not applicable · estimated
Nominal
+3.0%
Real
-17.3%
US dollar
-40.9%
Evidence: thin · Based on limited data
Not yet · Hard to sell
Main risk: Long empty periods. Slow to re-let after a tenant leaves.
Typical income threshold
$3,500
US$ per person · Comparable sample, 2010–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Segment viability dataset · USD · modelled
Gross rental yield
6.8–8.2%
% range · 2011–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Property return dataset · not applicable · estimated
Nominal
-4.0%
Real
-24.3%
US dollar
-47.9%
Evidence: thin · Based on limited data
Not yet · Hard to sell
Main risk: Limited evidence; operating performance varies by asset.
Typical income threshold
$4,000
US$ per person · Comparable sample, 2010–2024 · Intelligence Real Estate Segment viability dataset · USD · modelled
Gross rental yield
Not available
% range · Not available · Intelligence Real Estate Property return dataset · not applicable · estimated
Nominal
Not available
Real
Not available
US dollar
Not available
Evidence: thin · Based on limited data
06
How does a specific property compare?
Price, size, rent, costs, and borrowing turn the country evidence into an asset verdict, required rent, break-even occupancy, and debt-service cover.
07
What might this return, and where does the return come from?
Country-level illustration using the leading segment. Add a property for asset-specific cash flows.
Projected net yield
6.4%
25% costs · 10-year model
Exit value
$137,024
US$ · 10-year model
Equity multiple
1.49×
10-year model · modelled
Annual return (IRR)
4.9%
Counting when money is returned
The three parts sum to the modelled total return, within rounding.
08
What happens when the assumptions change?
| Input / output | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita growth | |||
| Rent growth | |||
| Yield movement, bp | |||
| Currency vs US$ | |||
| Supply change | |||
| Annual return (IRR) | -0.9% | +7.1% | +12.1% |
| Equity multiple | 0.9× | 1.6× | 2.2× |
| Capital returned | Not available | Year 8 | Year 6 |
Downside currency uses the country's worst available three-year exchange-rate move. Inputs are editable; outputs are modelled.
09
What can break the return?
| Risk | Likelihood | Quantified impact / test | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency | High | +47.1% ten-year move; worst three-year run +31.4%. | Reduce unhedged dollar exposure. |
| Entry vintage | Medium | Test purchase at the last local peak. | Require an entry-yield margin. |
| Oversupply | Medium | Compare completions with household formation. | Track permits and pipeline quarterly. |
| Yield decompression | High | +150bp lowers the exit value. | Do not rely on yield compression. |
| Construction-led growth | Low | 7.1% of GDP. | Separate building activity from end demand. |
| Title verification can delay closing. | Medium | Country-specific review | Verify before commitment. |
| Shilling weakness reduces dollar returns. | Medium | Country-specific review | Verify before commitment. |
| Apartment supply differs sharply by neighborhood. | Medium | Country-specific review | Verify before commitment. |
10
What is the thesis, and what must be true?
A selective warehouses and logistics opportunity, not a broad call on property prices. Income level supports segment viability. Entry yield, supply, timing, and currency decide whether the investor keeps the return.
Warehouses and logistics · Evidence: thin
Pay above the local price benchmark, rely on yield compression, or use debt that pushes DSCR below 1.25×.
11
Which values are measured, estimated, or modelled?
Measured
9
Official published series
Estimated
64
Manual or forecast values
Modelled
9
Derived values
Comparable selection. We take today's income per person, find when other markets first crossed that level, and keep markets with enough later property evidence. A poor outcome is retained.
Price basis. Nominal is the published local-currency move. Real removes consumer-price inflation. US dollar also includes the exchange-rate move. No nominal price return appears alone.
Known gaps. Segment return and supply data are thin outside advanced markets. Missing values remain Not available. They are not replaced with zero.
Conventions. CPI is used for deflation. Period-average exchange rates are used for currency conversion.
12
Where does every displayed metric come from?
| Figure | Section | Value | Basis | Source / series | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 2 | $135.9B US$ | USD | World Bank · NY.GDP.MKTP.CD | 2026-09-11 |
| GDP per capita | 2 | $2,363 US$ per person | USD | World Bank · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD | 2026-09-11 |
| GDP per capita, PPP | 2 | $7,016 international $ | not applicable | World Bank · NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD | 2026-09-11 |
| Real GDP growth, five-year average | 2 | +5.5% % per year | real | World Bank · NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG | 2026-09-11 |
| Real GDP growth forecast | 2 | Not available % per year | real | International Monetary Fund · NGDP_RPCH | 2026-09-11 |
| GDP per capita forecast | 2 | $3,328 US$ per person | USD | International Monetary Fund · NGDPDPC | 2026-09-11 |
| Population | 2 | 57,532,493 people | not applicable | World Bank · SP.POP.TOTL | 2026-09-11 |
| Urban population | 2 | 32.2% % of population | not applicable | World Bank · SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS | 2026-09-11 |
| Urban population growth | 2 | +2.9% % per year | not applicable | World Bank · SP.URB.GROW | 2026-09-11 |
| Inflation | 2 | +4.1% % per year | not applicable | World Bank · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG | 2026-09-11 |
| Exchange rate | 2 | 129.30 KES/US$ | not applicable | World Bank · PA.NUS.FCRF | 2026-09-11 |
| Currency depreciation, ten-year | 2 | +47.1% % | USD | World Bank · Derived from PA.NUS.FCRF | 2026-09-11 |
Industry sources are market participants, not statistical agencies.
This report contains 82 figures from 20 sources. 73 are estimates or modelled values.
Each agency earns one point for each verified factor. Open any awarded point to inspect its evidence. Rankings measure public data transparency, not service quality or investment performance. Reviewed September 28, 2026.
| Rank | Agency and main source | Index | Research | Method | Dataset | Frequency | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BuyRentKenya Listings portal · Property and land price indices based on listings Main sourcePublished February 2026 | 5 / 5 | |||||
| 2 | HassConsult Agency · Quarterly property, rent, and land indices Main sourcePublished May 12, 2026 | 5 / 5 | |||||
| 3 | Cytonn Real Estate Research firm · Weekly, monthly, and annual real estate research Main sourcePublished September 20, 2026 | 0No verified evidence | 4 / 5 | ||||
| 4 | Knight Frank Kenya Agency · Kenya market updates and Africa reports Main sourcePublished February 2026 | 0No verified evidence | 4 / 5 | ||||
| 5 | Pam Golding Kenya Agency · Listings and occasional market commentary Main sourcePublished June 3, 2021 | 0No verified evidence | 0No verified evidence | 0No verified evidence | 2 / 5 |
A publication date marked “not stated” means the publisher does not display one on the linked page. It does not earn a frequency point unless a reporting schedule is stated.